Should the Brewers be more aggressive on the bases?

I just saw an article by Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on how the new Brewers manager will be more aggressive on the bases... I find it interesting that new managers always say that (kinda like new basketball managers saying they're going to focus on defense, Scott Skiles). Anyways, I always thought that getting thrown out on the bases was really bad because you not only lose the runner on base, but you add another out to the inning (totally against Moneyball). Since I've been reading a lot of Advanced NFL stats (I love constantly looking back at win probability chart of the Superbowl and seeing the "100% win probability for the Pack at the end of it),  and since I've been trying to fill the football void, I decided to try to figure out being more aggressive was the right move or not for baseball.

First thing I did was find out the run expectancy (i.e. how many runs you'd expect to score in an inning with certain runners on base). I found one table here. Taking these numbers, I figured out the "breakeven" probability for taking an extra base. In other words, you'd hafta make it XXX% of the time for it to be worth it. I only did it for a single runner on base, I'll try with more runners on base at a later date. But here's the results:

For going from 1st to 2nd, you had to make it more than 73-75% of the time for it to be worth it. The number of outs didn't really matter too much. This makes sense because 2nd base is scoring position, so it didn't matter if you made the first, second, or third out there, getting to 2nd was the same.

For going from 2nd to 3rd:

0 outs: 75%
1 out: 70%
2 outs: 89%

The adage of not making the last out at 3rd shows up here. You better be 90% sure you'll make it if you try for 3rd with 2 outs.

For 3rd to home:

0 outs: 94%
1 out: 73%
2 outs: 35%

If you think making the last out at 3rd is a sin, making the 1st out at home is a bigger sin. The more interesting thing here is you should go for home with 2 outs if there's a better than 35% chance you'll make it. That means you should be thrown out at home 2 out of 3 times with 2 out. How many 3rd base coaches would get fired if that happened? Granted, this is assuming no other runners on base. So this is for a sac fly with a man on 3rd with 1 out, or a wild pitch opportunity, or even stealing home. What's the success rate of stealing home right now?

Even looking at the other numbers, it looks like it's beneficial to run if you can make it more than 75% of the time. So 1 out of 4 times, you should get thrown out trying to get to 2nd. That definitely feels like a lot, and many players would get benched for that.

So overall, my tune has changed. Apparently going for extra bases is like going for it more often on 4th down. No one gets fired for punting. I guess no one gets fired for not taking extra bases!

Front page Yahoo article on Brewers reliever

Nice article on Mark DiFelice on the front page of Yahoo... I don't think I've ever seen a middle reliever featured on the front page before.

Kinda ironic, I saw this article right after he came in last night and gave up a 2 run homer vs. the Cardinals!

The best sign ever

Watching the Brewers/Cubs game yesterday...


Aw yeah... one of the best use of acronyms I've seen in a while (this one actually uses the first letter of each word and is grammatically correct... and of course true)

The King of Queens in a baseball uniform

Interesting observation by the Astros TV announcer today during the Brewer game. It was regarding Brad Nelson, a backup player on the Brewers. Called him the King of Queens in a baseball uniform...

Happy Day! Bob Uecker on my iPhone!

Today a friend told me that you can get the MLB Gameday Audio app for you iPhone... and listen to games! I thought about renewing my XM Satellite subscription because I wanted to listen to Bob Uecker while he was still the Brewer's guy (especially after the news about Harry Kalas... made me want to enjoy Uecker while we had him). So now I'm listening to the Brewers play my hometown Reds, with Bob Uecker's voice in my white iPhone earbuds. I couldn't be happier. Don't tell MLB, but I would've paid more than the $10 it costed me.

Opening Day comeback... but I just stepped out for a sec!

So I'm in Chicago this weekend for a wedding, and since it's only 2 hours from Milwaukee I came up here early to meet my parents for lunch. It also happens to be Opening Day and the Brewers are playing the Cubs!

So lunch ends just as the game is starting... it's on TV here in Chicago, so I flip it on at the hotel. I watch the Brewers struggle to get runs, Koyie Hill's 2 run HR to put the Cubs ahead, and at the end of the 8th inning it's still 3-2. I get a call from the wedding party, saying they were gathering and hanging out before the evening festivities. I think I should probably go for a bit, thinking wouldn't it be ironic if the Brewers came back for a thrilling victory and I missed it after investing so much of my time to the game.

So I run upstairs to shoot the breeze a bit... when I come back downstairs to my room, I flip on the TV and see if the Brewers can pull off a comeback. What I saw was a replay of Rickie Weeks sliding into home and the catcher spiking the fall in anger... Brewers win 4-3. Sigh... well I guess it's better than the Brewers losing.

Trevor Hoffman... much better than Gagne!

Top 10 Reasons Why Trevor Hoffman is a Great Signing

His ERA is almost a run and a half lower than Gagne
He's $2.5-4 million cheaper than Gagne
We might actually consider offering him arbitration, and some team might actually consider signing him, so we can get a draft pick and get the next Ryan Braun
He hasn't taken HGH
He didn't STOP taking HGH
We haven't had a good closer song since "Wild Thing"
I don't hafta listen to my Red Sox fan friends laugh at me anymore for signing their garbage for $10 million
We can trade Cameron to the Yankees now
He can teach Tony Gwynn Jr how to hit pitchers other than himself
We get to see his SportsCenter commercial again

Brewers over Red Sox

Just read an open letter from the Brewer's owner to the fans... Man I wish I was him! That would be my dream, own the Brewers and build them back up to a contending team.

One really interesting fact that he said in his letter:

"More fans came to see the Brewers than went to games in Boston, in San Francisco, or on the South Side of Chicago to see the White Sox."

What? Milwaukee had greater attendance than the beloved Red Sox fans that read this blog???

BREWERS WIN BREWERS WIN BREWERS WIN

NOW I can talk about it! Brewers are in the playoffs for the first time in my memory! The Brewers ride CC Sabathia for a big win today, Ryan Braun hits the game winner in the 9th inning, the Mets lose, and the Brewers are playing in game 1 on Wednesday!

OUCH!

Was watching the Brewers play the Diamondbacks last night. Saw the catcher go down after a foul ball hit him. Tonight, the announcers were like "I don't even want to talk about what happened to him." So I looked up what the injury was:

Jul 1 Matt Paulson, of the East Valley Tribune, reports the Arizona Diamondbacks have placed C Chris Snyder (testicle) on the 15-day disabled list with a left testicular fracture.

So how do you rehab that injury? Do you put on a (very little) cast?